by Leonid Tsukanov
[REGNUM] Several Middle Eastern countries have recorded historical temperature highs, as well as the lowest precipitation levels in decades. Israel was among the first to sound the alarm.
The Jewish state's agriculture is more dependent on the mercy of nature than its neighbors.
| More dependent? Nonsense. Israelis invented drip irrigation among other innovations, and is a leader in wastewater reuse and water conservation in general. See a report in the subject from a few years ago at the bottom of this post. I don’t know enough to challenge Regnum’s claim that they are currently experiencing difficulties, but given that Syria’s 2011 civil war occurred during a prolonged, severe drought, Israel clearly handles such things better. |
DRIED EARTH
The current drought is not the first in the history of Israel, but it is the most extensive. According to data cited by the head of the Israel Water Authority, Hezi Lifshitz, fresh water springs in the north of the country have dried up to critical levels, and the Banias River, which flows into the Jordan, has almost completely dried up.
Tel Aviv's existing alternative water sources (which in theory should have maintained the country's water balance for at least another decade) were insufficient to meet the growing demand. According to the official, the country was faced with a challenge "that it had not seen for at least a century."
Agriculture was among the first to react to the crisis: Israeli wheat and barley producers reported a drop in yields of up to 60% in some areas. Moreover, the introduction of irrigation limits provoked a sharp jump in prices for vegetables and fruits - some categories of goods have increased in price by almost 20% in three months.
And the forecast remains predominantly pessimistic: official Tel Aviv has not yet been able to harness the rising prices, nor has it been able to curb the discontent among farmers and settlers.
Moreover, in addition to extreme temperatures, the Israeli economy is also under pressure from other negative factors, such as the increasing frequency of forest fires,
| …many started by firebug jihadis… |
The latter, by the way, even manage to drive large Israeli enterprises into bankruptcy (and the history of the port of Eilat is the best confirmation of this), which does not inspire optimism in the authorities.
EVERYONE HAS PROBLEMS
However, it is not only Israel that suffers from the drying up of water resources. Many of its neighbors in the region are experiencing similar problems, especially those that share a border with the Jewish state.
| Tolja so. |
However, already at the beginning of June, power plants had to be returned to their previous capacities due to the threat of rolling blackouts in Lebanese cities.
The situation has not been stabilized even by the end of July. Lake Qaraun, the largest reservoir on the Litani, is rapidly drying up, creating new security threats. If fires start in the area, there will be almost nothing to put them out with.
In Iraq, temperatures have broken records dating back to the 1990s, and a prolonged lack of rain has led to major adjustments to harvest forecasts. In addition to a significant (about 40%) reduction in wheat production, rice production has fallen to zero, damaging the country's food security.
There are problems with the population's access to drinking water. Some cities in the south of the country (for example, Sayyid-Dakhil), where temperature records have been broken, have been declared a local disaster zone.
And although the Iraqi government is trying to drown out the grumbling with positive news, such as reports of the discovery of fragments of the destroyed city of Zahiku (3,400 years old) in one of the dried-up reservoirs near Mosul, the population's discontent is growing.
In neighboring Syria, the drought is still far from the scale of the “terrible four years” (2007-2010), when extreme temperatures burned more than 60% of the country and caused unprecedented livestock losses.
| And a civil war — see above. |
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that drought-induced crop failure threatens to starve at least 16 million Syrians, and that crop areas are expected to shrink by 10-15%.
The threat is particularly strong in the Druze Mountains region, where serious disagreements between local ethnic elites and the central government are already observed. Accordingly, the risk of "water riots" increases significantly.
Iran, at first glance, has suffered less than others, and the authorities have not reported any problems with the reduction of cultivated areas. Nevertheless, the country is facing the consequences of the worst drought in the last 60 years.
This is particularly noticeable in Tehran, where the water volume in the five largest reservoirs has dropped to 13% capacity, with some dams dry or on the verge of drying up. More than 40 cities, including the capital, have faced water rationing and prolonged interruptions.
The situation is further aggravated by the fact that part of the water supply infrastructure was destroyed by Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and did not return to design capacity in time for the peak of the drought.
Egypt and Jordan were the least affected by the elements; both countries have created an extensive system of water bodies (including desalination facilities), which helps them “stay afloat” even during periods of severe drought.
| Wasn’t at least part of Jordan’s system built by Israel a few years ago? |
NEW GOLD
Meteorologists are inclined to believe that the current record drought is not a one-off event, and that countries in the region should prepare for more serious climate challenges. According to the most optimistic forecasts, precipitation in the Middle East is expected to decrease by an average of 12% by 2050, and by another 20-25% by 2100.
| Models are always wrong but sometimes useful, ‘tis said. |
For example, by 2050, Israel will need to increase its water capacity by at least 53%, Iran and Lebanon by 60-65%, and Syria and Iraq by approximately 76%.
| Of the three, only Israel is known as the Innovation Nation. What odds that Israel will rise to the challenge? |
Others even risk not even reaching the “finish line”: in Syria and Iraq, the population demands that the problem be solved “here and now” and does not yet have much faith in the prospects of the plans voiced by the governments.
In these countries, protest speeches are being heard with the same slogans as in 2011, when the “terrible four years” were replaced by the Arab Spring, and regimes in the Middle East began to fall one after another.
All of the above creates the risk of new coups in unstable countries, threatens to increase hunger and worsen economic indicators in Middle Eastern countries. And ultimately, the emergence of new hotbeds of tension near the Israeli borders.
Against this backdrop, Israeli "hawks" are calling on Tel Aviv to "act proactively" today, identifying potential "water treasures" (areas with the highest concentration of rivers and other water sources) and preparing for a possible imminent fight for them. And at the same time, for the protection of its own "desalinated wealth."
Few in Israel doubt that water will soon become the “new gold” for which they will have to fight – as well as that in the event of a hypothetical division, their country will be the first target for many. And therefore, calls to arm themselves in advance are no longer perceived as populism, but as a sober look into the future.
| So no change on the armaments side of things compared to now. If it’s not one thing, it’s another |
| Related from 2022: |
[Israel21c] Israel is a desert, and water resources are scarce, but today it produces 20% more water than it needs. What can the world learn from Israel’s experience?