by Kamran Gasanov
[REGNUM] Turkey had high hopes for Donald Trump's rise to power. The Republican is cynical on human rights issues, does not shy away from friendship with regimes that Democrats call "authoritarian," and is flexible on foreign policy issues, where globalists also often emphasize the spread of democracy and minority rights.
Following the Republican's victory last November, Turkish Foreign Minister and possible next president Hakan Fidan analyzed Trump's performance and made a forecast of his actions.
In it, Fidan counted on the withdrawal of American troops from the Euphrates region, but doubted that this would happen quickly. “My impression of Donald Trump is that despite his statements on various issues, he will postpone the solution of critical problems,” Fidan noted then.
Turkey ended up getting lucky. Between Trump's election and inauguration, Bashar al-Assad's regime fell, Turkey became the main player in Syria, and the American later showered Recep Tayyip Erdogan with compliments.
It would seem that the biggest burden that had been poisoning bilateral relations with the United States since 2018 had been lifted from his shoulders: Washington supported the Kurds and prevented military operations against them.
Over the past six months, Turkey's ties with the United States have undergone a renaissance. Trump calls Erdogan a friend, and the American president is expected to visit. Even Israel's actions in Syria have not damaged Turkish ties with the most pro-Israel American leader.
Trump gave Benjamin Netanyahu a dressing down and asked him to settle disputes with a NATO ally. Not only is the US playing the role of mediator between Turkey and Israel, but Istanbul itself has become a peacemaking platform for Washington. It was there that negotiations were held between American and Russian representatives on restoring diplomatic relations.
And there are also ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which the head of the White House has been so persistently seeking. Turkey has also become a mediator between Damascus and Washington, organizing a meeting between Trump and Syrian leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa in Riyadh.
In addition, the two countries have a number of interesting joint projects in the future. Turkey is counting on the lifting of sanctions due to the purchase of Russian S-400 systems and a return to the F-35 fighter jet construction program. In mid-May, the Turkish president said that he had seemingly reached an agreement with the United States to ease the sanctions imposed by the CAATSA law.
Relations could become even closer if the Americans gain control over the Zangezur Corridor and Armenia and Azerbaijan sign a peace treaty. Trump also intends to participate in the latter, for which purpose he will soon host the presidents of these countries, Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan.
The man who initiated American participation in the corridor project, Tom Barrack, is also the US ambassador to Turkey. Through him, America constantly consults with its ally on crisis issues in the Middle East. In particular, this scheme helped stop clashes between al-Sharaa and the Druze and the Israeli military intervention in Syria.
It would seem that what else do Trump and Erdogan need to be happy? Probably, all that remains is to hold a personal meeting, and the Turkish leader is doing everything for this. But Trump's arrival rests on the Ukrainian settlement, because Istanbul is counting on a four-party summit with the participation of Putin, Trump, Erdogan and Zelensky.
However, it is precisely the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict that could spoil the “romantic period” that has emerged between the two NATO partners. And here’s why.
Since July, Trump has begun to raise an eyebrow at the Kremlin: the impatient billionaire is not satisfied with the slow pace of the peace process and wants to achieve a ceasefire as soon as possible.
Russia is not against it, but it reminds us of the root causes of the crisis: NATO expansion, oppression of the Russian-speaking population, persecution of Orthodoxy in Ukraine, and others.
If in February Trump blamed Zelensky for the failure of peacekeeping and eventually forced him to attend the Istanbul meetings, now he has decided to try to put pressure on Russia.
As a result, he first issued a 50-day ultimatum, then shortened it to 10-12 days, threatening to start a tariff war against Russia and its trading partners. India has already been the first to fall victim.
And after India and China, Turkey is on the list of Russia's key trading partners. Since 2022, trade turnover between the countries has broken historical records, reaching $60 billion. Due to pressure from former US President Joe Biden and the sanctions he imposed on dozens of Turkish companies, the pace has slowed, but remains high.
In 2024, they were at the level of over $50 billion, which is 7% less than the previous year. Turkey is the third largest importer of Russian oil, and Russia is the leading supplier of oil, gas and coal to the country on the shores of the Bosphorus. Turkey imports 100% of the gas it consumes, and its dependence on Russian supplies is estimated at 40%. For “black gold”, the dependence is 90%.
On the other hand, the United States is the third export market for iron, steel, carpets, machinery, stone and cement products. Turkey annually supplies goods worth $14 billion to America. In Turkish imports, the United States, although far behind the European Union, still ranks fifth with a share of 5%.
If Trump decides to impose draconian tariffs, Turkey will face colossal economic damage. And all recent experience suggests that Turkey is vulnerable. In 2019, Trump almost brought down the lira when Erdogan refused to release Pastor Andrew Brunson, who was accused of having links to Gulenists. In the end, he was released. Incidentally, it was the Republican administration that imposed sanctions for the purchase of the S-400.
Under Democrat Biden, in addition to direct sanctions for parallel import-export with Russia, Türkiye received a blow to the project of the first nuclear power plant "Akkuyu". In February, the US Department of Justice froze $2 billion that came from Russia to the accounts of JPMorgan bank.
The Erdogan administration has so far not responded to Trump's tariff threats, apparently trying to delay the outbreak of conflict, but Turkish observers are already expressing concern.
Foreign policy expert Gökhun Gecmen wrote on social media immediately after the 50-day ultimatum was announced: "Trump's threat to Russia concerns Turkey. Trump said he would introduce 'secondary tariffs' if Russia does not reach an agreement with Ukraine within 50 days. This also applies to countries that trade directly with Moscow."
But even without a public reaction, the attitude of official Ankara is quite predictable. On July 30, the speaker of parliament Numan Kurtulmuş announced that new sanctions against Russia will not lead to a settlement of the Ukrainian conflict.
"You cannot stop a war with an embargo or similar measures. The task is not to take such measures, but to pave the way to peace through negotiations," he said.
In early February, Fidan said that Ankara wanted to start discussing with Washington the anti-Turkish restrictions imposed within the framework of CAATSA. And on September 19 last year, in an interview with Anadolu News Agency, he pointed to the West’s refusal to wage an economic war against Russia as part of the overall scenario for stopping the conflict in Ukraine: “sanctions will also be on the negotiating table as a large package.”
But it is one thing when it comes to sanctions against Russia, which have an indirect impact on the Turkish economy, and another thing when it comes to direct sanctions against Ankara. The latter are much stronger and more painful in their scale.
Turkey is barely emerging from the lira crisis. Inflation has slowed to 33%, the lowest since November 2021, and the key rate has been cut from 46 to 43 percent. Direct sanctions will not only put an end to the positive pace of recovery, but, as Trump threatened in his last term, will destroy the Turkish economy.
In short, Turkey is holding its breath ahead of August 8, the deadline for Trump's tariff ultimatum. They were probably watching his special envoy Steve Witkoff's visit to Moscow very closely, hoping for at least minimal progress in the Russian-American negotiations.
Much to Turkey's regret, despite Erdogan's role in the Istanbul negotiations, the issue of imposing sanctions is not within his competence: everything depends on Putin and Trump. At the same time, it should not be ruled out that behind the scenes or openly, Turkey will take all sorts of steps to find a common language with the White House. Erdogan has such experience: during Trump's previous term, he already managed to get exceptions for Turkey under US sanctions against Iran and Russia.
A scenario that is far more frightening for Turkey than sanctions is the risk of a direct clash between Russia and the United States, given Trump's threats to move American nuclear submarines closer to Russia.
But even here, Erdogan still has some leverage. International law expert Hakan Erkiner told the Turkiye newspaper that the American would have to get Ankara's approval if he decided to send US submarines to the Black Sea.
"Turkey, in accordance with the Montreux Convention, has the right to allow such warships only to enter its ports. I do not think that Turkey will give such permission," he noted.
Given Turkey's previous experience of blocking NATO ships from entering the Black Sea, it can be assumed that Ankara will prevent escalation this time as well.
As for sanctions, if the US and Turkey fail to reach an agreement, Erdogan may decide to follow the example of China and India and tell his American counterpart to go to hell. Cornered, he may reconsider his “friendship” with Trump. And the American president himself should think five times before hitting his ally for the sake of “punishing Russia.”
Türkiye could respond by pressuring the Americans and their Kurdish allies in Syria, Israel in Gaza,
| …does he have leverage with Israel? |