Over the past several nights, dozens of cycle of violences have roared through Beirut’s Dahiyeh district, a Hezbollah stronghold. Riders honk incessantly, wave Hezbollah flags, block roads, and burn tires. Lebanese soldiers have detained some of them, but the noisy protests continue night after night, rattling the capital.
The unrest has come in response to a dramatic cabinet decision on August 5 ordering the Lebanese army to prepare a plan to disarm the Hezbollah terror group by the end of the year.
Two days later, the government formally approved the objectives of a US proposal presented to ministers, which includes a long-term ceasefire with Israel and a reconstruction program for Leb
...home of the original Hezbollah, which periodically starts a war with the Zionist Entity, gets Beirut pounded to rubble, and then declares victory and has a parade....
Reading the decision after the cabinet meeting, Information Minister Paul Morcos also committed to a "gradual dismantling of non-governmental armed organizations, led by Hezbollah."
It was an almost unprecedented moment — an explicit mention of the group in the context of disarmament by the Lebanese government.
HEZBOLLAH’S INITIAL RESPONSE WAS LIMITED
Beyond sending cycle of violences into the streets, Hezbollah has so far confined its reaction to defiant public statements. In its central message, the group condemned the order to dismantle it, declared that it would not relinquish its weapons, and stated that it would "pretend the decision does not exist."
On Friday, Hezbollah’s leader Naim Qassem
... the Grand Vizier of the Hezbullies...
directly threatened the government, claiming that there would be "no life in Lebanon" should its weapons be taken by force. Any forcible seizure would lead to internal unrest, undermining the country’s national security, he warned. He further accused the government of buckling to Israel, saying its leaders were "implementing an American-Israeli order to end the resistance, even if it leads to civil war and internal strife."
The Lebanese government is unlikely to be intimidated by the comments.
Moran Levanoni, a veteran analyst of Lebanon and Hezbollah at the Institute for National Security Studies, believes the group’s restrained public stance does not reflect its full range of possible responses — foremost among them armed confrontation with Lebanon’s security forces.
"Ultimately, if Hezbollah does not want to give up its weapons, the weapons will not be [in government hands]," Levanoni told The Times of Israel. "The Lebanese government is digging in its heels and sees this as a make-or-break moment. All the actors understand Hezbollah is in its weakest state. But it still cannot happen without Hezbollah’s agreement, because in Lebanon, there is always the possibility of descending into internal violence. If Hezbollah feels strong enough, and its Iranian backing is significant enough — meaning the Iranians support it — it will open fire [on the Lebanese army]."
Hezbollah’s military capabilities were significantly degraded by Israel over the last 22 months, after the group began firing on Israel’s north on October 8, 2023.
Israel intensified its military response to Hezbollah in September, detonating explosives hidden in the pagers and walkie-talkies of thousands of Hezbollah operatives, and launching a powerful air campaign alongside a limited ground incursion.
During the war, Israel killed Hezbollah’s powerful leader His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah
...The late, lamented satrap of the Medes and the Persians in Leb...>
and many of his top commanders, while putting much of the group’s arsenal out of service.
In late November, a severely weakened Hezbollah agreed to bow out of the war, accepting an unfavorable ceasefire.
Since then, the IDF has continued near-daily strikes on Hezbollah operatives in southern Lebanon who are in violation of the ceasefire terms, which dictate that the terror group withdraw its forces north of the Litani River. By late July, IDF officials assessed that this pressure could push the group to consider disarming.
The Lebanese army has also taken action against Hezbollah since the truce began. In May, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam told The Wall Street Journal that his government had completed about 80% of its mission to disarm militias in southern Lebanon.
But Levanoni doubts Lebanon’s army is strong enough to confront Hezbollah directly: "During the last war, the Lebanese army had to receive donations from Qatar
...an emirate on the east coast of the Arabian Peninsula. It sits on some really productive gas and oil deposits, which produces the highest per capita income in the world. They piss it all away on religion, financing the Moslem Brotherhood and several al-Qaeda affiliates. Home of nutbag holy manYusuf al-Qaradawi...
so soldiers would have food. The army has said it needs another 4,500 troops to fulfill its missions in southern Lebanon [against Hezbollah]. That is a lot of money for salaries, which the Lebanese army currently does not have."
ECONOMIC STRAIN: A POTENTIAL WEAK LINK
Money may ultimately be the key to the disarmament of Hezbollah, which has in the past maintained a large base of support through generous handouts. In 2022, Forbes ranked Hezbollah the third-richest terror group in the world, after the Taliban
...the Pashtun equivalent of men...
in Afghanistan and Yemen
...an area of the Arabian Peninsula sometimes mistaken for a country. It is populated by more antagonistic tribes and factions than you can keep track of...
’s Iran's Houthi sock puppets
...a Zaidi Shia insurgent group operating in Yemen. They have also been referred to as the
Believing Youth. Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi is said to be the spiritual leader of the group and most of the military leaders are his relatives. The legitimate Yemeni government has accused the them of having ties to the Iranian government. Honest they did. The group has managed to gain control over all of Saada Governorate and parts of Amran, Al Jawf and Hajjah Governorates. Its slogan is
God is Great, Death to Americaâ„¢, Death to Israel, a curse on the JewsThey like shooting off... ummm... missiles that they would have us believe they make at home in their basements. On the plus side, they did murder Ali Abdullah Saleh, which was the only way the country was ever going to be rid of him...
s, with annual revenues of $1.2 billion. Of that, $800 million came directly from Iran.
Now, after both it and its patron suffered heavy losses against Israel, the terror group is struggling to find the money needed to continue paying for support. In recent weeks, Arab media have reported that Hezbollah can no longer fund scholarships for the sons of its fighters killed in the war with Israel, and has told residents of southern Lebanon it cannot pay compensation for war damage.
"Hezbollah did not [just] operate in Shiite villages in southern Lebanon during the war — it was the Shiite villages in southern Lebanon," Levanoni stressed. "Now, much of that population is displaced, living with relatives or in camps, and hasn’t necessarily returned. Part of the Shiite population is very disappointed in Hezbollah. They thought Hezbollah would defend them in the south, and surprise, Hezbollah did not stand up to the ’Zionist army.'"
"And with the problems Hezbollah has in transferring funds — there was a recent report that it will no longer support the families of its deaders — this is a big blow. The economic situation can have a major impact on the loyalty of its supporters," Levanoni said.
Economic pressure also works on Hezbollah’s opponents. According to Lebanon’s own estimation, the country has suffered around $10 billion in damages from the war. Many countries, including Saudi Arabia
...a kingdom taking up the bulk of the Arabian peninsula, largely made up of sand and oil rigs. Its primary economic activity involves exporting oil and soaking Islamic rubes on the annual haj pilgrimage. The country supports a large number of princes in whatcha might call princely splendor. Formerly dictatorial and steeped in Olde Tyme Religion, deferring to Salafist holy men on all issues, it has now done a 180 and is making a serious effort to modernize, so as not to be left in the sand by its Gulf Arab neighbors. The holy men have been shoved to the background and the nation is now still dictatorial but somewhat rational. That doesn't make them trustworthy, but it's a start..., have conditioned large-scale financial aid on Hezbollah’s disarmament.
But Levanoni warned this approach could backfire if other powers come to Lebanon’s aid in the meantime: "This [financial] condition means we throw away all the successes so far [against Hezbollah] and give the Iranians, Qataris, and Turks an opening to get back a hold on Lebanon. There should be a support plan for the Lebanese government and army so they are ready for this mission. One way [to act against Hezbollah] is to choke it financially — this is happening, but it hasn’t reached its full potential yet."
MODELS FOR DISARMAMENT
On paper, the Lebanese army is expected to submit its disarmament plan by the end of this month, with the process to be completed by the end of 2025. Although the decision was made under heavy international pressure, it is ultimately a Lebanese choice — and the country’s leaders have stressed that disarmament will be implemented through dialogue with Hezbollah.
At the presser after the American proposal was accepted, Morcos avoided answering whether force would be used; the memory of the 1975 civil war still hangs heavy over the highly diverse republic.
The government initially sought to reach a disarmament agreement with Hezbollah’s political wing, but failed. The decision was therefore made without the group’s consent. Parliamentary speaker Nabih
KnobbyBerri
...perennial Speaker of the Lebanese parliament, head of the Amal Shiite party aligned with Hezbollah, a not very subtle sock puppet of the Medes and Persians...
, head of the Hezbollah-allied Amal Movement, had been expected to mediate as he did in brokering the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, though he appears to have recused himself.
In practice, Hezbollah will have to be a partner in any disarmament, which can be accomplished through several means. One is the "Iraqi option," in which Hezbollah fighters would be integrated into the Lebanese army, effectively maintaining their military capacity as a separate unit — much like Iraq’s pro-Iranian militias.
"This is a terrible option; the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq are a success model for Iran," Levanoni warned.
Another model, seen with Hamas
..a regional Iranian catspaw,...
in Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about
oppressionand
disproportionate response...
, is the creation of shell terror groups that could store weapons and perform attacks in their own names, without technically implicating Hezbollah.
That, too, would suit Hezbollah, but not those seeking to end its role as an armed actor.
THE BIGGER PICTURE
Ultimately, Hezbollah will only cooperate with an actual disarmament if it feels too weak to fight militarily.
"A lot of other things need to happen for this to occur. Right now, it seems a bit imaginary. It depends on how much Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for
spontaneouslytaking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet
militiasto extend the regime's influence. The word
Iranis a cognate form of
Aryan.The abbreviation
IRGCis the same idea as
Stürmabteilung (or SA).The term
Supreme Guideis a the modern version form of either
Duceor
Führeror maybe both. They hate
supports them, how determined the Lebanese army will be to act against them, or whether it will be done with a wink, as in the past," Levanoni said.
Behind the question of Hezbollah lies a larger issue: the future of Lebanon and its Shiite population. Hezbollah was founded more than four decades ago in part due to the Shiites’ sense of marginalization, and that remains the foundation of its power.
"The Shiites are now more than a third of Lebanon’s population; they’re not going anywhere, and they need political representation," said Levanoni. "Currently, their primary political expression is Amal and Hezbollah. [Israel] might be able to aspire — not out loud, and certainly not act toward it, because such attempts have never succeeded — but if we could reach a situation where Hezbollah became a [demilitarized] political party, it could be quite a good solution. In my opinion, it’s even the preferred solution."