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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| The Logic Of Madness: Why The Ayatollahs Want War, Exactly Now |
| 2025-08-19 |
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…These are just the latest in a string of threats from the Iranian regime. Yet while we watch Iran struggle with electricity shortages and the internet floods with videos showing empty taps, the picture emerging from Iran’s deepening internal crisis seems clear: It will be madness for the Iranian regime to choose this moment to launch a war with Israel. But the story we tell ourselves is completely different from the one the regime in Iran see. For them, the country’s dire situation is not a reason to stop: Iran’s severe economic crisis, the electricity shortages, and the lack of water are direct results of the regime’s incompetence. Not only because tax money was invested in ballistic missiles and a nuclear aspirations instead of infrastructure. The roots of the crisis are deep, stemming from a mix of poor decisions and systemic corruption. Since the 50s, Iran has carried out large-scale water diversion projects, without proper environmental oversight or consultation. Networks of tunnels and pipelines were built to transfer water from rain-rich provinces to dry areas, but these transfers have emptied reservoirs and damaged the natural balance. Iran is facing hydrological bankruptcy. Poor planning has meant that twice as much water is extracted as naturally replenished, and the gap grows every year. The current crisis has been worsened by institutional corruption and nepotism. Many problematic dams built in recent decades were constructed by the IRGC, who took over multi-billion-dollar projects as part of their control over wide sectors of the economy. In many cases, IRGC personnel were prioritized over companies with water management experience. The result: public frustration has now reached its peak. And now, as the threat of EU sanctions possibly coming into effect in October hovers over the country, the only remaining financial mechanism, like oil trade with China is under risk. When the population has nowhere left to earn money, even for regime insiders, what options remain? They might take to the streets, venting their anger at the regime, deepening the rift between the people and the government, SO WHY WOULD IRAN RISK WAR NOW? If Iran can lure Israel into another round of conflict (all it takes is a few missiles fired), the Iranian population will be too busy fleeing Israeli strikes to protest the regime. “Israel is attacking the country during crisis,” the narrative goes. Perception is a weapon for the IRGC. Remember that. The regime is willing to enter another conflict, risking commanders, scientists, and maybe even Khamenei himself, just to survive in power. Logic has no place here. WHAT SHOULD ISRAEL DO? If the IRGC wants war, Israel must give it, but differently. Predictability is Iran’s weakness. Israel can act on its own terms, not reactively. Reverse-engineering is an option rarely used by Israelis, but here it can be effective. Missiles fired at Israel should not prompt predictable responses. Targeted assassinations and covert operations within Iran should carry most of the weight, executed by Mossad, not the IDF, with civilian safety prioritized. Restoring rivers by strategically destroying dams is an effective move, but mass evacuations must be avoided! Such operations shift blame to the regime, even among its supporters. Israel provides no distraction, and the ayatollahs’ command chain is disrupted beyond repair. Israel avoids appearing as the aggressor, while the regime appears irresponsible and sanctions intensify. As long as Trump is in office, now is Israel’s moment to shift the balance of power and finally topple the ayatollahs. This is an opportunity Israel cannot afford to miss. We cannot be dragged to war again. |
| Posted by:Fred |
| #3 Why? Why because the first world is occupied with Russia and Ukraine. Africa is in turmoil, Turkey is supplying Iranian weapons to Africans and Russians, ... Allah has told them the world is over extended |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2025-08-19 13:39 |
| #2 I think that what the author wants Israel to do is what Israel is already doing. Iran is a big country and the IRNG has a huge number of people under its command. A few operations a day attacking IRNG assets is going to take a while to have an effect. |
| Posted by: Lord Garth 2025-08-19 12:30 |
| #1 Because they have nothing to lose. |
| Posted by: Grom the Affective 2025-08-19 03:02 |