by Malek Dudakov
[REGNUM] An educational moment in the White House: this is how one can describe the events of the past day in Washington with the arrival of Volodymyr Zelensky and representatives of the European establishment to a reception with Donald Trump.
The key role was played not even by the negotiations themselves, during which little new was mentioned, but by the symbolism of the meeting itself, which was supposed to cement the primacy of Trump's agenda and the need for Europeans and Ukrainians to accept it as a given.
Kyiv lobbyists and European hawks were left in a state of complete confusion after the Russia-US summit in Alaska. They did not really understand what to expect from the American president.
They encountered sharp pressure from the United States, which began to quite openly impose its conditions for a peaceful settlement on Kyiv and European capitals. This was clearly demonstrated in the results of the meetings in the White House.
So the European establishment was clearly afraid to send Zelensky alone to meet with Trump, expecting that the Ukrainian delegation would simply be crushed.
However, it was not possible to agree on a consensus figure among the EU representatives. Therefore, almost everyone went with Zelensky in droves - from Emmanuel Macron and Georgie Meloni to Alexander Stubb and Ursula von der Leyen.
This resulted in a real clown show, where European leaders had to wait their turn in the corridor of the White House like naughty schoolchildren for an audience with Trump, who was a kind of school principal.
A separate negotiating track was held with Zelensky, during which Trump was able to achieve, if not all, then many concessions from the Ukrainian side.
To begin with, Kyiv showed its readiness to discuss the actual, if not legal, recognition of its territorial losses. Everyone has already safely forgotten about the 1991 borders.
So far, there is no talk of withdrawing the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the territory of the DPR, but here too, in the future, it is theoretically possible to adjust the position of the Ukrainian President's office. The White House is dissatisfied with Bankova's inability to negotiate and would like to resolve these territorial issues as quickly as possible, taking into account Russia's position.
At the same time, Trump, at the official and highest level, abandoned plans to include Ukraine in NATO.
Instead, Kyiv's lobbyists are asking the US to provide them with some kind of security guarantees similar to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Alliance Charter.
Although it is worth keeping in mind that this article does not guarantee a military response to aggression against NATO members. It gives members of the alliance the right, but not the obligation, to use various measures, including military ones.
The US does have agreements with some countries that commit Washington to defending them in the event of a conflict, such as Cold War-era agreements with Japan and South Korea. However, it is unlikely that the Trump team will make such commitments in the context of Ukraine.
There are also alternative options, such as security agreements with Israel or Taiwan.
Contrary to popular belief, the United States has never promised to defend Israel in the event of any military conflict.
Although in fact the Pentagon very often comes to the aid of the Jewish state. But this happens largely due to the activity of the Israeli lobby. The situation is similar with Taiwan - there are very vague formulations that can be interpreted in any way.
Perhaps a similar scenario will await Ukraine.
By the way, Kyiv has already signed many security agreements - with the US during Joe Biden's term, and with Britain, Germany, France, Poland and others. However, none of them imposed any obligations on Western countries to come to Kyiv's aid in the future.
The notorious “coalition of the willing” from among the European hawks also ended its existence rather sadly.
Convincing the US to provide them with military, air and intelligence support has been impossible. Forming their own peacekeeping corps is too expensive and technically extremely difficult. Especially in conditions when Britain and France are in the throes of a severe budget crisis.
Trump has once again publicly promised to sell American weapons to Europeans, which they can then use at their own discretion. Including sending them to Ukraine.
However, for Kyiv lobbyists, this is a very negative scenario overall. After all, they will have to stand in the general queue to receive scarce weapons, which takes many years. And compete for the same air defense systems with Israel, Taiwan and other US allies.
For the White House, this way of posing the question is an opportunity to remove responsibility for the future of Ukraine and shift it onto Europe.
The European elites who have arrived in the White House are being given a very transparent hint that they can wage a standoff with Russia for as long as they like. If, of course, they have the strength and resources.
The US will continue to reduce its participation in the affairs of the Old World. There is a possibility that some US troops will begin to withdraw from Europe this fall.
The question of the need to hold elections in Ukraine was raised separately.
Zelensky was forced to publicly confirm the possibility of organizing elections for the first time. Washington is discussing a variety of options for reformatting Ukrainian politics.
Among them are the elections to the Rada, in which the Servants of the People lose their majority. Then, through various parties in opposition to Zelensky, it will be possible to approve a new composition of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, which will recruit apparatchiks according to the American quota. In this case, it will be possible to govern Ukraine directly from the United States and bypass Bankova and Zelensky.
But this is a scenario for the future after possible progress in the framework of the negotiating track with Russia.
For the White House, the obvious priority in the near future is to try to find a common denominator and reach firm agreements. And then the conversation will turn to reconfiguring Ukraine's political system.
Trump's team is clearly in a hurry, and there are objective reasons for that. Congress returns from vacation in September, after which a difficult period of budget approval awaits.
If this is not done before the beginning of October, the US government will be threatened with a "shutdown" or suspension of work. This has happened often in modern American history and is not a catastrophe, but it is still not an optimal scenario.
Therefore, the White House will in any case have to be distracted by the budget process, which is very important to it.
And then, in October and November, there will be local elections in the United States, including some significant electoral battles, such as the mayoral race in New York. And immediately after that, preparations will begin for the upcoming midterm congressional elections in November 2026.
Trump, J.D. Vance, and many other members of the current administration will go into election mode. They will travel around the states, give speeches, and mobilize the electorate. Foreign policy issues will slowly begin to fade into the background.
So Trump's window of opportunity will start closing in the next few months. He needs to get as many international agreements concluded as possible in a short time, because it will be much more difficult to work later.
Whether Trump will succeed or not, time will tell. But one thing is clear - the pressure on Ukraine and Europe in the near future promises to be colossal.